Additive manufacturing in 2024

TCT

Experts on what to expect from 3D printing in 2024

"From the dark depths of realisation comes the potential to grow, develop and shoot for the AM moon."

by

Few things in this life are certain but at least every January you can guarantee a steady torrent of predictions and resolutions as we strive to make sense of the year ahead of us. For the additive manufacturing (AM) industry, the last 12 months were a turbulent mix of mergers, acquisitions, rocket launches, stock market non-compliance notices, and 'Marmite' applications like the Wilson Airless Basketball. It made for an interesting year of juicy water cooler chat, but also served as a reality check for an industry that is still endeavouring to find its place in the wider manufacturing landscape against a backdrop of global economic challenges.

None of us has a magical crystal ball, so instead of making wild guesses about what the year holds for AM (though you'll be able to read some of our editors' thoughts in the next edition of TCT Magazine) we decided to gather the perspectives of our esteemed TCT Expert Advisory Board for their take on 3D printing in 2024. Our experts range from consultants, to academics, to heads of departments at leading engineering firms so, naturally, their responses were just as far reaching. From calls for stronger 3D printing recruitment, to applications in emerging markets like construction, and sobering acknowledgements of turbulence in the global economy, read on to find out what predictions and wishes our advisors are putting out into the AM universe in 2024.

Robert Higham, Founder and CEO, Additive Manufacturing Solutions Ltd. 

Well, the last couple of years has seen a flood to market of machines in the metallic powder bed fusion space and a lesser flood, more of a stream, of self-integrated wire arc additive systems. My prediction is, the dam that is the geopolitical and financial position the UK is at, will restrict this to a trickle. Well, this is good news; my next prediction is that we will start seeing users of these machines, and hopefully the primes and end applications outsourcing to these users will start looking for the key outputs of productivity, cost, sustainability impact and material knowledge with a significant amount more interest. This will potentially drive AM up the industrialisation curve.  

The industrialisation curve is more than a myth (like some cynical people would have you believe) and now we have seen hype with AM rise and hopefully finish. From the dark depths of realisation comes the potential to grow, develop and shoot for the AM moon. How far we get towards the hype potential is yet to be seen. Won't it be a fun ride getting there? Let's see how far 2024 takes us! 

Melissa Orme, Vice President, Boeing Additive Manufacturing

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Exhibit at the UK's definitive and most influential 3D printing and additive manufacturing event, TCT 3Sixty.

I think that 2024 will be the year of data. As the machine makers and the users become more mature in their understanding of what is required to attain repeatability and stability in an AM production setting, coupled with growth in the areas of data science, machine learning, and artificial intelligence, several changes will occur: first, those machine makers that don’t provide or allow access to their machine data will face more pressure to adopt to the new paradigm and open up their machine for data extraction by the user; second, existing software tools will be refined and expanded and new software tools will be created that will focus on creating machine learning tools from the data extracted from the printing machines coupled with the data from other downstream and upstream processes. New efforts to release data that in the past were locked within sensors of IIOT devices will enable the interconnection of data streams from different elements of the value stream into the digital thread.  The data within the digital thread are used to create the data science algorithms that enable predictability, stability, and quality control. The machine learning algorithms provide critical information on ‘what’ is happening, tell us ‘when’ it will happen, help us understand ‘why’ it is happening and ‘how’ to respond, providing a clear opportunity for predictability and stability in the AM factory — and it all begins with the data. 

Jonathan Rowley, AM Consultant and founder of AM Manifest 

I hate making predictions. Most people who enquire about what the future holds for AM, are really asking, whether or where to invest. These sorts of "insight" really aren't my department. I'm no NostradAMus. 

My heartfelt wish is that DfAM, in all its forms, continues to grow in its general understanding. When more people design well for AM, at whatever level and for whatever application, they produce purposeful parts. Good results build individual faith in the technologies, and this opens the way to explore more varieties with confidence. Anything that helps to share and disseminate this information in an accessible format is the key to widest meaningful AM adoption. 

A growth in this understanding makes predictions redundant as the value of great AM outcomes speak for themselves and only breed more. 

Candice Majewski, Senior lecturer in Mechanical Engineering, The University of Sheffield

My number one wish for 2024 is to see some completely new applications for Additive Manufacturing. We always see lots of great examples of AM across many sectors, but I'd love to see someone come up with something none of us has ever thought of.  

With all the new people entering the industry from all kinds of backgrounds, I’m fairly sure we’ve got plenty of opportunities for imaginative new ideas to take AM to the next level!

Terry Wohlers, Head of Advisory Services and Market Intelligence, Wohlers Associates, powered by ASTM International

Automotive chassis, suspension, brakes, and other major subsystems will be produced for high-end cars from Aston Martin, Ferrari, Mercedes-AMG, and others. Divergent Technologies is leading much of this work and paving the way for mainstream (i.e., more affordable) automobiles, which will require several years to develop.

Expect to see increased use of AM for heat exchanger design and production. One has been certified for use on the F-35 combat aircraft, with Sintavia playing an important role.

The architecture and construction industry continues to explore ways to put AM to work. Some examples are interesting, but many are not. Even so, companies are beginning to determine when and where AM produces real value. Until better materials and business cases develop, much of the value will come from improved aesthetics and architectural creativity.

Organisations will place more importance on the carbon footprint impact of AM. Many will find that sustainable products are less costly to produce due to the use of less material and improved energy savings during production. The approach becomes even more attractive when considering the energy savings of transportation products, such as aircraft. Design for additive manufacturing, such as consolidating many parts into one, will contribute dramatically by reducing manufacturing processes, assembly, and inventory.

Jennifer Johns, School Interdisciplinary Research Lead & SIMBE Research Director at the University of Bristol Business School & Design and Manufacturing Futures Lab

2024 will very likely see continuing turbulence in the global economy. Continuing supply chain pressures and geopolitical tensions are refocusing business and policy-making attention on the capabilities of AM. The global defence sector will continue to grow, with heightened geopolitical tensions seeing some reshaping of critical supply chains based on national security concerns. This may see greater reliance on local and regional supply chains. In terms of the AM sector, this year will see further consolidation through merger and acquisition activities, likely between the largest firms and with ongoing vertical consolidation of smaller and specialist firms. As markets focus on AM firm equity values in decline since peaking in 2021, AM firms will be seeking ways of adding value to their offer. This could be through enabling reshoring and/or achieving greater environmental sustainability in manufacturing. 

Steve Cox, 3D Technologies Consultant, AMFORi Consulting

We are still only part of the way on the journey from the technology’s rapid prototyping origins to it being accepted as fully-fledged manufacturing method. The sector needs to continue to concentrate in 2024 on where it adds real value which, at the moment, still seems to be about its time compression advantages.

I would like to see at least some further progress in 2024 showing how we can build up the repeatability and reliability of AM and 3D printing. Both aspects are essential as we look to make further progress on the “RP to AM” journey. Manufacturing engineers always need to understand (and be convinced of) the effective yield and repeatability of a piece of equipment and it’s processes, so seeing more of these metrics considered and demonstrated by the sector is essential to showing that AM and 3D printing can be a reliable manufacturing option.

Kat Ermant, Lead Prototype Technician, Peloton and Women in 3D Printing ambassador for New York City

In 2024, it would be great to see an emphasis on recruitment, training, and young talent. Despite the incredible technology being developed that emphasises autonomy, we will still require skilled and passionate operators to maintain and run our machines. We won't replace talent and skill with better equipment, but we can and should combine them! Additive manufacturing has been around long enough that it's time to reevaluate how we perceive the career pipeline. There are numerous opportunities within the industry, but we need to discuss what the next wave of manufacturers looks like and what their futures can be. I propose making 2024 the year of the people and exploring where innovation can take us in the hands of our future engineers.

Ruaridh Mitchinson, Technology Manager - Additive Manufacturing, MTC

The Ministry of Defence’s ongoing Project Tampa initiative, AMUK annual action plan, and the development of an AM roadmap by the Aerospace Technology Institute in partnership with The MTC, will boost the UK's global competitiveness for additive manufacturing in the medium to long term.

We are seeing a rising demand for our services from companies who want to de-risk their engineering development projects, which is why we have been strengthening our AM capabilities with additional equipment acquisitions. Our recent investments in directed energy deposition (DED), PBF-LB, polymer, and cold spray technologies will enable us to push innovations in large-scale AM and using advanced materials.

Chris Sutcliffe, CEO, Meta Consultancy

1) Continued pressure on struggling AM businesses dealing with high cost of ownership low production rates and expensive materials.

2) Significant consolidation in the AM space with the SPACs that hold the likes of Desktop Metal and Markforged running low on cash.

3) EBM making something of a return…come on Wayland.

4) LPBF getting faster but coming under significant pressure from Seurat.

5) Seurat struggling with the final stages of product development.

6) No truly new applications.

7) Further financial stress for business owners and their families.

8) ... not solving 6 or 7 because no one has addressed 1).

Jeremy Pullin, Head of Additive Manufacturing, Sartorius

This is the year when the investor market is going to lose patience with AM companies. The last half of 2023 has seen multiple companies struggle to keep their share value above $1 per share but once this is seen as a norm rather than an exception, confidence goes and it’s a tough job to recover from there. Part of this is due to the fact that the tech has not reached its potential. This is largely due to ‘over promising’ rather than ‘underdelivering’. It is also, however, due to so many AM companies being led by tech experts rather than business experts. This results in poor strategic planning, and the sort of level of prioritising that makes you wonder if some boards would grab for a lead weight rather than a life vest if their ship was going down. Some company boards are so obsessed with growth by acquisition that they let it completely override the need for inward investment - investment that would keep them performing for that other group of people that are not shareholders or investors. You remember? I think the sales people call them, ‘customers’? 

My tip for anyone looking to invest in 2024 is go for something safer than AM (which, let’s be honest, right now includes holiday villas with views of scenic Icelandic volcanoes). If you do really want to go for some AM shares, then avoid the ones that are concentrating their efforts in buying up other companies and spread your risk by investing smaller amounts in small and emerging companies with tech that possesses a genuine USP.